Introduction In today’s volatile world—marked by regional conflicts, financial shocks, and shifting demographics—the resilience of real estate markets is becoming a crucial focus for investors, policymakers, and economists. Drawing from my doctoral research on the real estate markets of Turkey and the GCC, this article explores key structural and dynamic factors that contribute to real estate market resilience.
1. Internal Migration: A Domestic Force of Resilience One of the most underappreciated factors in market resilience is internal migration. Cities that become magnets for domestic migration often show sustained housing demand, robust labor markets, and growing service economies.
In Turkey, cities like Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir have absorbed populations from the eastern provinces, boosting housing demand and economic vitality. In the GCC, cities such as Riyadh and Jeddah have experienced similar internal population shifts, reinforcing their real estate markets.
These migration trends lead to rental stability, price elasticity, and consistent investment interest, even in turbulent times.
2. Economic Fundamentals and Market Depth Strong macroeconomic foundations are critical to market resilience. Key indicators include:
- Stable GDP growth and employment levels
- Economic diversification beyond oil or tourism
- Accessible housing finance and low inflation
Dubai, with its diversified economy spanning trade, finance, and tourism, and Istanbul, with its mix of manufacturing and logistics, both demonstrate this strength.
3. Transparent Legal and Regulatory Frameworks Investor confidence hinges on the clarity and enforceability of property laws. Resilient markets have:
- Secure property rights
- Transparent transaction processes
- Efficient dispute resolution systems
Turkey has enhanced its land registry and legal systems, while the UAE offers a globally competitive legal environment.
4. Infrastructure and Urban Planning Infrastructure development signals long-term growth. Key features of resilient markets include:
- Integrated transport systems
- Reliable utilities
- Urban planning with climate resilience
Major infrastructure projects like Dubai’s metro and Istanbul’s new airport correlate directly with renewed real estate demand post-economic downturns.
5. Governance and Policy Response Policy agility plays a vital role in resilience. Responsive governance includes:
- Adaptive housing supply strategies
- Incentives and regulatory reforms during crises
During the COVID-19 crisis, both Dubai and Turkey implemented timely mortgage incentives and legal reforms that stabilized housing markets.
6. Social Stability and Demographics Resilient markets benefit from positive demographic trends, such as:
- A growing middle class and youth population
- Education and employment hubs
- Safe, inclusive urban environments
Cities with family-focused urban planning and access to education and healthcare attract long-term residents and investors.
7. International Connectivity and Global Perception Global integration enhances resilience. Cities like Istanbul and Dubai are:
- Major transit and trade hubs
- Perceived as globally investable markets
- Supported by strong tourism and capital inflows
These factors help markets recover investor trust quickly after crises.
Conclusion: Resilience is Multi-Dimensional Real estate market resilience is not built on a single factor but on a complex interplay of economic, legal, social, and governance elements. Among these, internal migration stands out as a powerful but often overlooked driver of organic and recurring demand.
As global uncertainties persist, understanding and integrating these resilience factors will enable investors, cities, and governments to better navigate disruptions and build sustainable real estate ecosystems.
About the Author Dr. Muhammad Ali Shahzad is the CEO of Ottoman Real Estate in Istanbul and recently completed his Doctorate in Business Administration with a dissertation on the impact of regional conflicts on real estate markets in Turkey and the GCC.
